Every glimpse of the northern lights begins as a spot on the sun’s surface. And if the increased solar activity is any indication, the next year and a half will be full of flickers.
Sunspot observations, a key indicator of the likelihood of the northern lights, have increased dramatically since the end of 2022, exceeding recent forecasts and in some cases increasing the area from which the phenomenon is visible. Scientists say that if the trend continues, the next 18 months will bring the strongest northern lights activity of the coming decade and the past 20 years, with the show visible more often and from more places on Earth.
“Skywatchers are excited,” said Mark Misch, a research scientist at the University of Colorado – Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, an international scientific group sponsored by NASA and NOAA that forecasts sunspot activity, has predicted in 2019 that the coming year will be below average, with about 110 to 115 sunspots at its peak. But updated models from many scientists suggest that the increase in solar activity could be much greater.
Misch said solar activity is expected to continue to increase until 2024, when the aurora borealis, also known as the northern lights, are most likely.
Sunspots – dark, low-temperature, extreme magnetic fields on the Sun’s surface – create space weather when magnetic distortions throw particles into space. This activity, called a coronal mass ejection, sends particles more than 94 million miles until they find weaknesses in Earth’s magnetic field, where the particles collide with the planet’s atmosphere and create neon colors. Who fill the sky.
The northern lights are most visible near the North and South Poles, where Earth’s magnetic field is weakest. But additional solar activity has already increased the extent to which the lights can be seen this year: On Monday night the northern lights could be seen as far south as Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the Arizona Daily Star reported that the northern lights were visible in the state. Was seen in April.
Space weather isn’t the only factor, Misch said: The autumn and spring equinoxes cause greater disruptions in Earth’s magnetic field. This is because the orientation of Earth’s magnetic field points its weaker part toward the Sun, allowing space particles to more easily reach Earth’s atmosphere.
“When there’s a big disturbance in the magnetic field, you’re more likely to see auroras at lower latitudes,” Misch said.
This will almost double the chances of northern lights in the coming days, Misch said.
Sunspot is one of the longest-kept observational data sets, with record-keeping stretching back to the 17th century.
“Sunspots are our window into the past to compare current activity to centuries ago,” Misch said.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com